By Kaundjire Humbu
Namibia has allocated N$40 million to strengthen its national strategic grain reserves as the government revises its 2026 economic growth forecast to 2.3 percent and identifies climate conditions, animal disease and global market pressures among the risks facing the economy.
The allocation was announced by finance and public enterprises minister Ericah Shafudah during the presentation of the 2026/27 Mid-Year Budget Review Statement on 22 October 2026.
The funding will be channelled through the Agro-Marketing and Trade Agency (AMTA) to purchase surplus white maize and mahangu from local farmers.
The purchases are intended to increase government-held grain stocks ahead of the 2026/27 rainy season, when forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall.
The budget review revised the country’s projected economic growth for 2026 to 2.3 percent, following weaker-than-expected economic performance during the first half of the year.
The government identified the anticipated El Niño weather phenomenon, the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), subdued global demand, commodity prices and high fuel prices among the risks to the economic outlook.
The revised growth forecast reflects the combined economic outlook and is not attributed to El Niño alone.
The N$40 million allocation is intended to increase the quantity of grain held in the national strategic reserves through purchases from local producers.
Government silos at Katima Mulilo, Rundu, Omuthiya, Tsandi and Okongo held 1,922.86 tonnes of mahangu and 5,511.63 tonnes of white maize as at 30 September 2026, according to figures reported in October.
The additional funding was expected to enable AMTA to purchase approximately 2,832.65 tonnes of white maize and 2,150.21 tonnes of mahangu, bringing the planned additional purchases to almost 5,000 tonnes.
The final quantity purchased will depend on the implementation of the procurement programme and the funding available. The allocation is specifically intended for grain purchases and is not a general climate adaptation fund.
AMTA is responsible for purchasing and storing grain for the national strategic reserves. These reserves provide government with stocks that can be used during periods of reduced domestic production or other disruptions to food supplies.
Purchasing surplus grain also provides a market for local farmers holding produce from the previous harvest.
The planned purchases will add to the quantities already held in government storage facilities.
The allocation comes as seasonal forecasts indicate that rainfall conditions could be less favourable for agricultural production during the coming months.
The additional grain is intended to strengthen the stocks available to government if domestic production is affected.
The mid-year budget review also reported that Agribank advanced N$366.9 million to 544 clients between April and August 2026.
Of the amount advanced, N$44.4 million went to women, N$28.3 million to young people and N$94.6 million to communal farmers.
The financing was reported to have created or maintained approximately 1,550 jobs.
The government further reported that approximately 51,000 farmers benefited from the Namibia Agricultural Mechanisation and Seed Improvement Project (NAMSIP).
The Agribank figures cover loans advanced during the period under review, while the NAMSIP figure represents the number of farmers reported to have benefited from the project.
These figures form part of the agricultural support measures recorded in the budget review.
They cover financing and programme beneficiaries during the period under consideration and are separate from the N$40 million allocation for grain procurement.
The figures also distinguish between financial support provided through loans and assistance delivered through an agricultural development project.
The budget review records both measures as part of the government’s support to the agricultural sector.
The revised economic growth forecast of 2.3 percent places the grain allocation within a broader review of Namibia’s economic performance and prospects.
The government identified several risks that could affect economic activity, including El Niño, the FMD outbreak, subdued global demand, commodity prices and high fuel prices.
These factors affect different sectors and may influence production, trade, transport and government revenue.
The anticipated El Niño conditions are particularly relevant to agriculture because rainfall influences crop production, grazing conditions and water availability.
Poor rainfall can reduce harvests and place pressure on livestock farming, while higher temperatures can increase evaporation and water demand.
The budget review also identifies FMD as a separate risk to economic performance.
The disease affects cloven-hoofed animals and can result in restrictions on animal movement and trade as authorities implement control measures.
Such restrictions can affect livestock production and marketing.
Global demand and commodity prices also influence Namibia’s economic outlook, particularly through export activity and revenue from commodity-related sectors.
High fuel prices can increase transport and production costs for businesses and households.
The revised growth forecast reflects these combined pressures.
The budget statement does not attribute the projected 2.3 percent growth rate to climate conditions alone.
The Southern African Development Community’s 33rd Regional Climate Outlook Forum, held in Swakopmund in August 2026, forecast an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across Namibia between October and December 2026.
The outlook indicated that below-normal rainfall could continue from January to March 2027.
Above-average temperatures were also favoured across much of southern Africa. The Namibia Meteorological Service issued a similar warning in September, indicating the possibility of below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures during the rainy season.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average, affecting atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns in different regions.
Its effects vary by location and season, and other climate systems can also influence local conditions.
The forecasts indicate an increased probability of below-normal rainfall rather than certainty that all parts of Namibia will experience drought.
Rainfall distribution may differ between regions, and conditions can change as the season progresses.
The outlook is relevant to agricultural planning because rainfall timing and distribution influence planting, crop development and grazing conditions.
Farmers and agricultural authorities must also account for differences in local conditions when planning production and managing available resources.
The N$40 million grain allocation provides a specific government measure ahead of the forecast season.
The programme’s implementation will determine how much additional grain is secured for the national reserves.
The mid-year review also identifies renewable energy development, expanded agricultural production and downstream value addition as areas relevant to economic diversification and reducing reliance on commodity-based revenue.
The government has indicated that it is working to shorten turnaround times for environmental clearance certificates, exploration licences and mining licences.
Environmental clearance remains part of the regulatory process for proposed activities that may affect the environment.
The measures outlined in the review include the grain procurement allocation and agricultural financing reported for the first five months of the 2026/27 financial year.
The statement does not announce a separate dedicated allocation for climate adaptation under the measures discussed.
The budget review therefore records the N$40 million allocation as a targeted grain procurement measure within a wider economic outlook shaped by domestic production conditions and international market pressures.
The quantity of grain eventually purchased through AMTA will determine how much the allocation adds to the national strategic reserves ahead of the 2026/27 rainy season.
