By Sostenus Wilherm
A leading geologist has cast a critical spotlight on Galp Energia’s decision to surrender 40 percent of its stake in Namibia’s much celebrated Mopane discovery. The expert questioned the commercial logic behind what had been hailed as one of the world’s most significant oil finds of 2025.
Writing in the Africa Oil & Gas Report, Canadian geologist Tako Koning argues that beneath the headlines and industry excitement, major technical and economic risks remain unresolved in Namibia’s offshore Orange Basin.
The Mopane field, located in Petroleum Exploration Licence 83, was named 2025 Discovery of the Year by global consultancy Wood Mackenzie, however, Koning suggests the celebration may be premature.
Despite Galp originally holding an 80 percent working interest in the licence, the company chose to give up half of that position in exchange for minority stakes in other offshore blocks, including the Venus field and PEL 91. Koning points out that Venus, far from being a straightforward prize, is “super challenging due to its water depth, highly gas saturated reservoirs and the issue of permeability.”
Koning says his central concern is commerciality as none of the Orange Basin discoveries, including Mopane and Venus, have yet been declared commercial. He added that none of the discoveris have been booked as reserves and none have reached final investment decision stage. The reason, he maintains, lies largely in the massive volumes of associated gas discovered alongside the oil.
“What will we do with all of that gas?” Koning asks.
The question strikes at the heart of Namibia’s offshore ambitions and developing ultra deepwater fields in depths ranging from 1,200 to 3,000 metres requires enormous capital expenditure, advanced infrastructure and viable solutions for gas monetisation or disposal. Without a clear gas strategy, he believes, oil volumes alone may not justify multi billion dollar investments.
Koning’s analysis suggests Galp’s move may reflect strategic caution rather than confidence, a way to reduce exposure, share risk and reposition before the true economics of the basin are tested.
The Orange Basin has been described as one of the world’s hottest exploration frontiers, drawing global majors into Namibian waters. Meanwhile, as Koning’s intervention makes clear, discovery headlines and awards do not automatically translate into bankable projects.
He says, Namibia stands on the brink of potentially transformative oil production and that the path from discovery to development may be far more complicated as well as far more uncertain than the industry’s early celebrations suggest.
