By Kaundjire Humbu
Economist Jason Kasuto says Namibia’s economy could almost double in size over the next decade, but warns that the next three years will determine whether Namibians benefit from the anticipated growth.
Speaking at the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Namibia National Accounting Summit, Kasuto said the economy is projected to grow from N$270 billion in 2025 to approximately N$500 billion by 2035, measured in today’s money.
Kasuto is the chairperson of the Economic Association of Namibia and the managing director of Manasa Advisory.
Drawing on figures from the Bank of Namibia, the Ministry of Finance and BMI, he said economic growth is expected to rise from 2.1 percent this year to 9.5 percent in 2029, 18.1 percent in 2030 and 13.8 percent in 2031, driven by the anticipated start of production at TotalEnergies’ Venus oil field and new uranium, gold and copper mining projects.
“A step up in size is not a new permanent speed, and it is the easiest kind of growth to waste,” Kasuto said.
“In 2036 Namibia will be a bigger economy. Whether it is a better one will be decided in the next three years.”
He identified several major projects that could drive growth, including TotalEnergies’ Venus, Galp’s Mopane and Rhino Resources’ Capricornus oil discoveries, as well as the Langer Heinrich, Husab, Tumas and Etango uranium projects. Gold developments Twin Hills and Kokoseb, alongside the Haib copper project, could also contribute to the expansion.
However, Kasuto noted that a final investment decision on Venus had not yet been taken.
He identified public finances, foreign reserves, employment and skills, and the regulatory framework being developed as four of the five major risks to the economic outlook that Namibia can influence domestically.
Kasuto warned that the expansion of the oil and mining sectors would not automatically translate into widespread employment or improved living standards.
“Oil creates capital, not many jobs. Local content, beneficiation and skills decide how much of this growth stays in Namibia,” he said.
Reviewing approximately 45 national plans introduced since 2000, Kasuto found that some strategies expired before their successors were introduced, leaving gaps of three to five years. He also noted that agriculture and mining, two of Namibia’s largest income-generating sectors, lacked dedicated sector visions.
He proposed supplementing Vision 2030 with 10 sector visions, each built around three missions and one national indicator. This would produce 30 measurable indicators to be published annually and independently verified.
Kasuto outlined five priorities that should be addressed before Namibia begins producing oil. These include finalising petroleum regulations, reducing the budget deficit from 5.5% to 3.3% of gross domestic product by the 2028/29 financial year, legislating deposit and withdrawal rules for the Welwitschia Fund, establishing binding local content requirements with measurable targets, and adopting the proposed sector visions.
President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, in her message to the summit, said its theme reflected Namibia’s national aspirations for a transparent economy.
She said opportunities existed across all sectors, but stressed that the priority was to translate them into tangible outcomes for the country and its people.
